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| Building a Winning Fantasy Roster: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1. Lose All Team Loyalties: The first rule in building a fantasy roster is to disassociate yourself from any team loyalties. Suppose Pedro Martinez (on your roster) is facing the Yankees, your favorite team, who are down by a run and have C Jorge Posada (not on your roster) batting. Who do you root for? If you are an avid Yankee fan, you want to see Posada jack it. However being an avid fan has little to do with succeeding in a fantasy league. For an avid fantasy player this is a no brainer. Posada strikes out, giving a win to Pedro and a hitless at-bat to the Posada owners. Besides rooting for our favorite teams, diehard baseball fans also tend to glorify players on their favorite team and hold them in a better light than they deserve. The first key to assembling a winning roster is to be entirely honest about a player's potential, good or bad, like him or hate him. Set aside all personal feelings in regards to a player. Surely you have had conversations about a player and someone usually says: "yeah, but the guy is a jerk." While this may be true, their off field escapades are not our business and nowhere is this more true than in fantasy baseball. In a nutshell: if your reason for not having a player is not associated with statistics or salary, it is not a valid reason. 2. Balance Your Roster: When initially piecing your roster together, the first realization is usually that you have gone way over budget and can find absolutely no one you are willing to get rid of. The first thing to do when building your roster is determine how much you can spend on hitting and how much on pitching. Let's break it down: suppose you have a $30 million salary and need an active roster of 28 players (2 per position + 2 DH + 6 starting pitchers + 4 relievers) or $1.071 million per player. Now we'll assume that pitching is half the battle. We can assume this because if there are 10 categories in your league, five are likely hitting and five are pitching, with all counting the same. Knowing this, we can quickly figure our average per player ($1.071m) is wrong. The actual $/player is different depending on whether the player is a hitter or pitcher. In this scenario, we have $15 million to spend on hitting and $15 million on pitching or rougly $833 thousand per batter and $1.5 million per pitcher. In order to achieve this you will surely need one or two carefully selected bargains in your rotation and one in your pen. While you don't have nearly as much to spend on hitting, there are many more solid bargains to be had. Without using this balance, it is too easy to neglect a category and get stuck with no room to manuever once the season begins. 3.
Statistics Are Relative To Position: In order to make
achieving Rule #2 more attainable it is necessary to follow Rule #3. While 40 homeruns is 40 homeruns in the books, when assembling your roster
there is nothing further from the truth. For example, let's compare these
two sets of numbers:
In the fantasy world, without considering positions, these two players would be considered equally valued. But knowing that Player A is a catcher (Javy Lopez) and Player B is an outfielder (Manny Ramirez), who would you rather have? Lopez would be the obvious choice (based on last year's numbers, of course). Javy hit 13 homeruns more than the next closest catcher and was near the top in most offensive statistics, making him by far the most valuable fantasy catcher. Ramirez, on the other hand, with nearly identical stats, falls maybe 10th in the pack among outfielders. When compiling your lineup, consider which player(s) will not necessarily give you the best production but the biggest advantage over your opponent. 4. Use Projections: The only way to gauge the true value of a player is by comparison and trial and error. When comprising a potential lineup, begin by making a spreadsheet with name, salary and the relevant stats (depending on your league). Next, find a reliable projections provider, such as Fantasy Baseball Realm and enter in the projected stats of your players onto the sheet. Immediately you can find out projected totals for your team and determine if you are low (or high, explained in Rule #5) in any categories. Now compile a list of alternatives at each position and exchange them, with projections, into your lineup. This will enable you to see how a little more salary here and a little less salary there will change the results of your lineup. Remember, as in real life, success doesn't come to the team who has the best player but the best balance. In any case, don't stop tinkering until the bell rings. There is always a better lineup and always a better way to saving invaluable salary cap room. In most instances you will find that having the player "you can't do without" is not as productive in the long run. Along with using projected stats, it is important to consider projected lineups and rotations along with any changes a lineup has gone through in the offseason. While a hitter's spot in the order has a huge impact on whether he will score or drive in runs and whether he will be called on to steal as much, the hitters around a spot have just as big of an impact on that player's season. For example, do you think Ichiro would steal 40 bases if he was hitting 3rd? Probably not and he wouldn't score as much either but a couple table setters ahead of him would give him better pitches (higher average, more homeruns) and many more RBIs. 5. Cover All Of Your Bases: Given today's brand of baseball, the primary focus falls on the long ball, but don't be fooled. A winning fantasy roster is not merely the one with the most homeruns. A neglection in one category can have an insurmountable affect on your entire season and while it would be nice to have Pujols and Helton, they don't cover all of the primary categories. Aside from the .320 average, 90 HRs and nearly 250 RBIs they might give you, their presence would leave a gaping hole in a oft-neglected fantasy category; stolen bases. Since you are not going to pass up the opportunity to have these sluggers, it is up to you to determine how you will supplement that void. One general rule of thumb is to avoid players that have a void in any fantasy category. Following this rule, you would take Alex Rodriguez instead of Todd Helton or Carlos Beltran instead of Manny Ramirez. This is especially true for batting average. Note: beware any hitter who hits below .270. While Jason Giambi bashed 41 homeruns last season, those owners unfortunate enough to have him probably found themselves hard-pressed to overcome his .250 average. The same holds true for pitching. While it would have been nice to have Derek Lowe's 17 wins, you can surely do without his 4.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The same can be said for Mike Williams, who had a respectable 28 saves but a less than thrilling (and surely lethal) 6.14 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Remember, your aim is to win and simply because you have nine guys with 40 homeruns doesn't mean you will. Nine guys with 30 homeruns would do the job and give you money to use elsewhere. In almost all cases, it is better to settle for a little less here to get a little more there. |
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