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FBR's 2009 Fantasy Mailbag
 
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Fantasy Baseball Question?
Send us your fantasy baseball questions and we will be picking some of the most relevant to answer here throughout March as we get you ready for another fantasy baseball season. Thanks in advance for all of your great questions!

 
 
Apr 05
I was able to add the following players in a 5X5 Rotissere draft as free agents; Todd Helton, Kendry Morales, Trevor Cahill and Chris Ray. What are your thoughts on these players and which if any do you like to blossom as sleepers?    -- from Tanaki

Tanaki, they are all deservedly solid sleepers heading into 2009. Helton has been nothing but NL-only fodder the last couple years while dealing with continual back issues but has ripped the hide off the ball this spring and is probably the one to target as having the most attainable upside. Whether he is going to stay healthy the whole season, however, after offseason surgery, remains to be seen and there are already reports he had fallen to less than 100% near the end of camp. Ray is in the same boat somewhat after recovering from Tommy John surgery. While it was inevitable he would force George Sherrill out of the closer role at some point, that could come sooner than later and it wouldn't be surprising to see Ray get the save opportunities out of the gate. Like Helton, however, there are serious concerns as to whether he'll stay healthy. Morales and Cahill could both have a huge impact this season but Morales has to be considered the safer bet due to a deeper resume and the strides he's made the last year, including the fall league. The Angels are convinced he will justify everyday at-bats and everything points to him coming through but whether he hits 15 homeruns or 25 will dictate his ultimate fantasy value. Cahill, meanwhile, has a world of talent and is settling into a perennially fruitful rotation but will be backed by one of the league's poorer offenses and has to overcome some control issues to fulfill expectations. As it is, all four have substantial upside but a good deal of risk for varying reasons. In this situation, history speaks the loudest and, although they could fall in any order, I'd rank them Helton, Morales, Ray, Cahill in likeliness to stay on your roster. Good luck!!!

Apr 02
I'm in a points league. Since Joba Chamberlain has been designated as the 5th starter in the Yankees' rotation and their concern for injury, do you think they will let him take the hill every fifth day or is he a threat to be periodically skipped?    -- from Yardbirds

Yardbirds, there's no doubt Chamberlain has deserves a spot in all leagues now that he's starting but there are questions as to what levels he'll reach this year. With 100 innings last year and 112 in 2007, the Yankees will probably aim to keep him under 150 this year and keeping him in the fifth spot throughout the year will help them stay in line with that number as he can be periodically pushed back with days off. Currently, we have him making 27 starts at about 5.5 innings per and that should be enough work to chalk up 10+ wins and 170+ strikeouts to go with sparkling ratios while keeping him relatively healthy. There's another factor in regards to his workload as well, however, and that's the status of closer Mariano Rivera. Although he's healthy right now, Rivera's advancing age is reason for concern and if he can't stay healthy, Chamberlain is the first in line to take over in the ninth inning. As slim as the odds are, it's still a possibility. In regards to your question, yes, Chamberlain is likely to be bumped at times throughout the year but that shouldn't be enough reason to not consider him on draft day.

Mar 31
I'm in a 10 team league H2H. I kept Sabathia this year and drafted Shields, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Slowey and Maholm. Also drafted Price. What's your take on Price? I think I have a solid offensive team. Starters are Sandoval,Youkilis, Pedroia, C Davis, Aviles, Sizemore, Hamilton, Holliday, Abreu, and either Votto/Konerko/Lowrie as my last Util. How long do you think Price will be on the shelf? I could use some offensive depth but right now there is no one I want to drop.    -- from Terminators

Terminators, Sabathia was a no-brainer as a keeper but you did a fine job in the draft as well. Shields should be just off the elite tier while Nolasco, Johnson, Slowey and Maholm are all fantastic sleepers capable of busting out, especially Nolasco. As for Price, it's really uncertain how long he'll remain in Triple A. In theory, the team wants him to work on the command of his secondary pitches while making a bigger commitment to his changeup. That's not surprising as both are key to success in the bigs and it's an approach used by many teams, most notably the Twins with Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, etc.. Minnesota, however, has allowed prospects to work in long relief in the bigs as opposed to going back to the minors and that would have seemed like the best situation for Price had they deemed him not ready for a spot in the rotation. In essence, there's little reason to think he needs more seasoning and the Rays are putting A LOT of their hopes, and possibly their season, on the shoulders of Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann. Should the duo exceed expectations and peform admirably in whatever starts they're given, there will be no need to recall Price until later in the year. But there's little reason to think they'll pitch better than Price would and the club, it seems, will realize that as well. Since you are playing in a keeper league, dropping him probably isn't an option and he'll still have value this year; the question is when? Be patient and hopefully the situation will clear itself up sooner than later and Price will get back on track as an elite rookie.

Mar 29
I am in a Mixed Draft right now!!! I won the league last year, with a heavy load up of Offense, Utley, Aramis, Jeter, Delgado, Soto, Soriano, Hunter, Abreu, Soria and Fuentes. I picked up Quentin, Clff Lee and Harden and basically didn't draft SP or RP until the late rounds, I have the 2nd pick this year!! Any last minute advice?? I play in a CBS total points league, with no minuses for anything! Let me know! I love your site!! Thanks!   -- from Pete

Pete, that's quite the team and it's no surprise you wound up with the title. Hopefully you can pull off a repeat. Obviously there are some huge advantages to playing in a point-based league that doesn't use negatives. Along with being able to focus on sheer production, suspect ratio players see little dropoff and are great targets at better prices. The top of the draft order should probably be similar, Ramirez-Wright-Reyes, but guys like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are considerably more valuable as well as closers instead of starters. I have played in many of these leagues and have used the same strategy with similar success. Focusing on offense early and closers late has been very effective. Starters, while needed, are not nearly as valuable as they are other leagues as nearly ANY two-start pitcher is a better bet for points than ANY one-start pitcher in a given week. Draft some starters in the middle rounds for reliability but they shouldn't be in your lineup in a one-start week. Instead, fill your entire staff with either two-start pitchers or closers. Rotating your lesser starters through the waiver wire when moves become available Monday mornings will get you the most points in that area and will help you use your premium draft picks on everyday players instead. Hope this makes sense but it seems like you have a good basis for how those leagues operate and that is more than half the battle. Good luck!!!

Mar 27
I need to keep four players for my league and can't decide on the last couple. Ryan Braun and Russell Martin are my obvious keepers but I have to choose from these players for the last two. Ryan Ludwick, Roy Halladay, Troy Tulowitzki, Trevor Hoffman, Shane Victorino, Fred Lewis, Francisco Cordero and Jose Lopez. I have some others but these are the best. I would like to keep Halladay and Ludwick but hate throwing Tulo and Victorino back into the pool. This is a point-based league. Any advice is appreciated, thanks!!   -- from Giant Killaz!

Killaz, you're right in keeping Braun and Martin and there isn't any question those are your top two options as keepers. They are not only stars but could be the top options at each of their respective positions. In a point-based league, Halladay should probably be a must; his strikeout totals are slightly underpar but he's a virtual lock for a full slate of starts, well over 200 innings, low hit/walk totals and a win total in the 17-19 range. He's a point-league beast and you probably won't be able to replace him via the draft. As for your last keeper, Ludwick is coming off a monster campaign but, given his age and previous production levels, we find it highly unlikely he can repeat the success and wouldn't put him in the same class as Victorino in the outfield. Tulo is a nice catch at a crucial position but has a couple obstacles facing him. One is the sluggish production he had last year and the other is the probable alternatives available to you on draft day such as JJ Hardy, Alexei Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Jed Lowrie and Jhonny Peralta. In a perfect world, Tulo would get back to his rookie form and justify the keeper slot (and we expect him to rebound in a big way) but with more than a couple reliable shortstops as backups, it doesn't make sense to keep him. You could, however, throw him back and simply target him in the early going of your draft. Lewis, Cordero, Lopez and Hoffman should all be beneficial but none qualify as keeper options given your other choices so there's no need to consider them. In the end, Victorino and Halladay are your best bets and you can fill in the blanks on draft day.

Mar 24
It seems a lot of star quality players have been hurt this spring....is there any reason to think the likes of A-Rod, Johan, Hamels, Manny, etc won't be good picks this year?   -- from Steve

Steve, injuries always seem to play a part in spring but, just like the stats that come out, it's important to keep the ailments in check and not make them a bigger issue than they need be. The biggest headline has been A-Rod and his injury is also probably the most concerning, considering the type of injury it is, the patch-job solution performed and the price it takes to get him in any league. In the least, he will likely miss the first month but there will be inherent risk throughout the season and surgery will still be needed at some point. Hopefully that time comes after the season but there no certainty he won't be forced to cut his season short at the first sign of trouble. In a perfect world, he could play in 130+ games but we'd have a hard time drafting him with those expectations and think something under 125 is more feasible. While Manny doesn't have the same issues, the hamstring problem he has been enduring isn't a good sign for the coming season. As noted in our updates, a healthy Manny is a top run-producer but at 36-years-old, more "tweaks" to various parts of his body can be expected and he too seems unlikely to play in 135 games this year. As for Johan and Hamels, they are in somewhat similar boats but the fact Johan has been down this path before without being forced to the sidelines is more assuring than the situation surrounding Hamels. At this point it appears both will be good to go for the long run despite the possibility of missing the first week of action and shouldn't be downgraded. Since there's always an inherent risk with pitchers, don't overstate their risk solely. The array of injuries thus far to all players isn't appeasing but it's not much different than the missed game or two during the season for all players and at this point, only A-Rod seems like big concern among elite players.

Mar 21
It seems like there were a bunch of players who unexpectedly had huge years last year. Is there anyone you think could do that this year and who do you think will fall back to previous form from 2008?   -- from Disco Stu

Nice name Stu, love the reference! Although there were a number of unexpected bustouts last year, it wasn't any different than usual as there are always a handful of players who break the bank after coming in well under the radar in the spring. Cliff Lee went from having to make the roster to the Cy Young but we don't have much faith he can come close to last year's numbers while the same can be said of Ryan Ludwick. Both are solid options in all leagues but expectations should be kept in check to minimize the risk. They aren't the only ones who face a possible dropoff as Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu and George Sherrill all give us hesitation as possible relative busts this year. Of course, most of the bustout candidates are on our sleeper lists already but there are a few who were left off that could fit the mold. Edwin Jackson in Detroit is one such option on the hill, along with Chan Ho Park, Randy Wolf, Jonathan Sanchez and Franklin Morales. On the hitting side, the Rockies Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker both qualify as do Nelson Cruz, Matt Joyce, Kahlil Greene and Felipe Lopez. A collection of recent woes and sub-standard expectations, most of these players are undraftable in mixed leagues currently but a couple of them could be stars before the year is out.

Mar 17
Hi, I would like some help with my keepers. It's a 5x5, AL, $260 cap, 10 teams.I can only keep 2. Joe Saunders $6 Fausto Carmona $11 Gavin Floyd $6 Armando Galarraga $9 Thanks for your help.    -- from TheBasher

Basher, that's a very interesting pool of pitchers you have to choose from. All of them have the potential to win 13-15 games with decent ratios and little help in regards to strikeouts. Saunders is the best of the bunch and will be needed to carry an extra load with the absence of Ervin Santana; coming off a 17-win season, at $6 he is a must. Carmona should be substantially better than he was last year but the eerie similarity to his ratios in 2006 and last year can't be ignored and the lofty $11 pricetag probably takes him out of consideration. Galarraga and Floyd both made significant gains last year and Floyd's 17-win output has to weigh heavily in his favor as does the cheaper price. If you want to play poker, however, and take a gamble on bigger upside, Galarraga headed into last September with a 3.17 ERA and was a better pitcher over the course of 2008 while Floyd was fairly average the second half. Neither is going to break the bank but Galarraga will probably give you a better showing again.

Mar 14
I am in a 12-man keeper league and have two keep three from a pretty good pool of players...my best options are Ryan Braun, Brian McCann, Prince Fielder, BJ Upton, Stephen Drew, Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. My gut is to keep a couple offensive players and Hamels but I wonder if I can't find more pitching in the draft? I pick fifth so there should be a solid starter available if I want to take a chance. Thanks for the help.   -- from Jeter4MVP

Jeter4MVP, that's an interesting pool to choose from and it would be easy to simply take the best three on your roster but that isn't necessarily the best approach. In this group, there is one no-brainer and that is Braun. Although he's no longer third base eligible he's a top ten player and could wind up at the top any year now. Drew and Lidge are frontline producers at their position with the former poised for a bustout campaign but compared to the others on board and the likelihood of replacing them in the draft, there's no way you can keep them. Upton is already a top-20 outfielder and only getting better but with the likes of Nick Markakis, Shane Victorino, Jacoby Ellsbury and even up-and-coming Fred Lewis, there isn't any reason to pass up obvious positional varience with your other options. Hamels is a Cy Young candidate and, if you can't redraft him with your first pick, likely irreplaceable. The same could be said for Fielder, who is coming off the board in the first two rounds of yearly drafts and targeted for possibly his best season yet. Passing on McCann is tough but you could make him your focus in the first round or find one of the young rising catchers to pin your hopes on at a far cheaper rate. You have a talented pool to choose from and could go many different routes but unless you know who is actually going to be available, it's best to play it safe and take the positional slotting you already have. Letting Upton, Drew, McCann and Lidge go back into the pool isn't an easy decision but keeping Braun, Fielder and Hamels is probably your best bet. Good Luck!!

Mar 10
I'm in a head to head league that uses the standard ten categories (R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, W, S, K, ERA, WHIP) and am drafting in a couple days. In the past I have preferred to take hitters early and focus on saves, ERA and WHIP from my pitchers without putting too much emphasis on starters. I've won one championship this way but have been close a couple times but am wondering what you think about this approach? Thanks, love the site!!!   -- from Steve

Steve, sounds like standard Yahoo draft league of which I've played many. And I have used that exact same approach in the past. The key to success, and roadblock to success for those who miss the point, in fantasy leagues isn't necessarily knowing the sport but knowing the rules of the game you are playing. Although it's important to have base knowledge in regards to the players and their potential, simply using that and thinking you can build a championship caliber team isn't enough. In essence, it's the same as thinking you can be good at Tiger Woods golf on playstation because you are a golfer rather than knowing the tricks of the actual video game. You hit on a key point; in this scoring system you don't need to win ten categories but rather 5 or 6 to guarantee a win. Since certain statistical profiles fit together better than others, it's best to match those areas up accordingly. For example, if you choose to focus on steals and runs it's probably not going to work to grab sluggers. Likewise, focusing on wins and strikeouts may not be suitable to winning ERA or WHIP. In the long run, there's no right or wrong as any approach can work but focusing your efforts on attaining hitters the first few rounds can provide an offensive juggernaut in all five categories while adding attractive saves, ERA and WHIP gives you three more potential wins each week. It also allows you to avoid the high-priced starters to instead focus on cheaper closers in the middle of the draft. Again, there is no right or wrong as long as you understand the rules and draft accordingly. Good luck!!

Mar 07
I was reading an article the other day that ranked Hanley Ramirez WAY above Jose Reyes for shortstops. Obviously, Reyes steals a ton of bases, but do you think make up for his lower power and production numbers and rank him with Hanley? Thanks!   -- from darkstar

Darkstar, no matter what scoring format you're talking about, there doesn't seem to be an argument to be made that Reyes is on a level with Ramirez when it comes to value. Not only is Ramirez the better hitter by a long shot, their power and run-producing ability is not in the same ballpark either. While Reyes is clearly the better base-stealer statistically, he hasn't been able to put much distance between himself and Ramirez in runs scored and Hanley has actually out-produced him in that area as well the last three seasons. In a nutshell, Ramirez is the game's best weapon at shortstop and quite possibly the No 1 overall player with A-Rod shelved for at least the first six weeks of the season. Now, while he is unquestionably the better option, Ramirez doesn't necessarily blow him out of the water based on Reyes singular abilities, including his base-stealing prowress, a gap that should widen with Hanley's move to the third spot this year. In almost every scoring system, they are ranked Ramirez-Reyes with Ramirez comfortably ahead but Reyes also has a nice gap between himself and No 3 on the list, Jimmy Rollins, adding to his own value. To the original question, however, there's no way we'd ever consider drafting Reyes ahead of Ramirez and if someone does, Ramirez should be the guaranteed next pick no questions asked. *****Note to "Rob" with the keeper question, it is way too long to post here but drop it in our email link and I'd be happy to break it down for you.*****

Mar 05
Im in a keeper draft league, have held onto some solid hitters, I have Pujols, H Ramirez and C Quentin (along with Lidge at closer). I pick 6th, thinking I should grab a starter for balance but wondering if that is too early, but still would like a top tier guy. If I do, would it be better to get Johan or Lincecum?   -- from dodgerhater

Dodgerhater, to call those guys "solid" may be the understatement of the hour but, as you know, that's a great core to start with and it leaves you plenty of options going into the draft. With that much offense already on board, tabbing a starter in the first round would probably be the best route to take and if one of those guys is there you have to jump on him. Johan is still the best in the business and the obvious choice but there are some concerns in regards to his forearm issues and Lincecum's production last season can't be ignored in a keeper format as he could easily replace Quentin as your keeper next year. That said, if everyone is keeping offensive players, there's a good chance at least one of the two will be gone by the sixth pick and, if that's the case, you won't have a decision to make. Should a starter like CC Sabathia, Jake Peavy or Cole Hamels be available, they're certainly worthy of the slotting and we'd recommend staying with your original train of thought. There aren't many quesions among the group and all are capable of heading frontline fantasy staffs. Should all of these options be gone, another slimmer possibility, you'll have to deduce whether it's best to take the next starter in line or move to fill another hole on your team, ie- third base. Either way, with your offensive keepers you have multiple options available and it will take a thought process with some liquidity to get the best value.

Mar 03
I've been able to break the bank with both Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria as May pickups the last two years, anyone to look out for this year that could have the same impact?   -- from John

That's quite the haul in back-to-back years. While it's not fair to anyone to expect similar production, there are a few rookies who could be in the bigs sooner than later. The biggest names on the rookie radar are Tampa's David Price and Baltimore's Matt Wieters. While Price was thought to be locked into a starting job after last year's post-season performance, there are whispers the Rays could be leaning towards sending him back to Triple A to start the season. A must in mixed leagues right now, word of a demotion would make him undraftable in most multi-league pools but certainly a A+ target upon his inevitable recall. Wieters, meanwhile, is in a position similar to Longoria last year. There's little doubt as to his ability and he's already being regarded as perhaps the best defensive backstop in the bigs but in an effort to start the clock later, it's likely the Orioles let him bide his time at Triple A for a month or so. Assuming he starts in the minors, once May rolls around he's almost certain to join the parent club with immediate impact potential. Depending on the size of the league, both could be nice latter-round picks in any case but clogging up a roster spot with a minor leaguer isn't necessarily the most productive way to get to the post-season. Some others to keep an eye on are Matt LaPorta, Matt Gamel, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, Neftali Feliz and James McDonald.

Mar 01
Any big sleepers this year that are flying under the radar? Looking for some slick picks for mid to late rounds.   -- from kendrick

While being in position to draft Albert Pujols or Ryan Braun is convenient most championships are won on the backs of players who blow their draft day values out of the water. Just as Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum and Carlos Quentin did last year during break years, owners will be looking for this year's bargains on draft day. Offensively, we expect Stephen Drew and Alexei Ramirez to move into the upper tier of shortstops and provide very good bang for the dollar while Ryan Doumit, Dioner Navarro and Chris Ianetta could do the same behind the plate. Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, both Nationals outfielders, have significant upside as do Cameron Maybin and Fred Lewis. A deeper sleeper to target may be the Giants Pablo Sandoval, who is expected to play first but is also eligible at catcher in most leagues. On the hill, Chris Volstad, Max Scherzer, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jair Jurrjens have a good deal of intrigue but Zack Greinke and a healthy Francisco Liriano are probably the top bets to explode. Lastly, there are a number of new closers that could move into the upper echelon in no time. Carlos Marmol and Jonathan Broxton aren't unknowns but names like Heath Bell, Jason Motte and Joel Hanrahan will likely make headlines as new stoppers, either out of the gate or during the season. Don't stop with the draft either as the first couple weeks can provide a glimpse as to who else could be flying under the radar.

 
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