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FBR's 2008 Fantasy Mailbag
 
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Fantasy Baseball Question?
Send us your fantasy baseball questions and we will be picking some of the most relevant to answer here throughout March as we get you ready for another fantasy baseball season. Thanks in advance for all of your great questions!

 
 
Mar 28
Which side benefits more in this possible deal: Vlad Guerrero, Bobby Jenks and Rickie Weeks for Todd Helton, JD Drew, Felix Hernandez, Josh Hamilton?   -- from mike

Mike, the ultimate value of the trade depends on league size and the scoring method but in a vacuum, I would give the first group the advantage. Felix Hernandez should be a perennial Cy Young candidate from here on out and Josh Hamilton could be in for a bustout year but there's not much to offer after that. Helton is a potential .320-20-90 player but hovers noticeably below the standard at the position and Drew really can't be regarded very highly in any format. Conversely, while Weeks bears a significant amount of risk, he is a possible 30/30 player at second base and should make considerable strides this year as long as he stays healthy. Jenks can't match the value or production of Hernandez but is a top-ten closer in most leagues but it's Vlad that sets the first group apart. When making deals it's always good to land the best player and there's no doubt the Angels slugger is a class ahead of anyone else listed here. There's a lot of upside on both sides with Weeks, Hernandez and Hamilton but I'd take Vlad, Jenks and Weeks.

Mar 24
In my 12 team H2H keeper league and I've assembled a team that I feel is well balanced. I took over the team last year and did a bunch of remodeling, if you will. The one problem I see is the fact that I have not one first round type player. How do you think my roster look? And do you think I can compete without a true "Top Tier" player? I have C C.Snyder, 1b J.Morneau, 2b R.Weeks, 3b A.Ramirez, SS M.Tejada, OF C.Lee OF N.Markaks, OF A.Jones, UTIL C.Pena, UTIL J.Hamilton. Bench R.Paulino, R.Theriot. SPs A.Harang, B.Webb , T.Lincecum, S.Kazmir, R.Hill, M.Cain. RPs M.Capps, C.Cordero, J.Soria, E.Gagne. I also have C.Buchholz, M.Kemp and K.Suzuki on my minor league team, available to me at any time. Thanks in advance--TKO   -- from No Big Bats In CT

TKO, while it's true that you don't have a legitimate "top-tier" player, you do have a number of players that fit the next tier and have star quality this season. Lee, Ramirez, Morneau and Tejada are near the top of their positions while players like Markakis, Hamilton, Weeks (please could this be the year!), and Pena could all be frontline players down the road. Not to mention Kemp, who should certainly be on your starting roster as a possible top-25 outfielder this season. The same can be said of your pitching. Harang and Webb are legitimate Cy Young candidates and Kazmir and Cain would be if they pitched for better teams. Although your saves could be a little below par with Capps and Soria (and a questionable Gagne), the ratios they provide should make up it. With young talents like Lincecum and Buchholz waiting in the wings, there doesn't appear to be many weaknesses in the group you've assembled. It's nice to have front-line players like Ortiz, Utley or Cabrera but it's just as important to have depth and balance and you have plenty of both. The opportunity may present itself to deal a couple of your guys for a top-tier producer but be patient as your squad has plenty to offer. Nice work and keep doing what you've skillfully done so far!!!

Mar 24
Fantasy baseball! Who should I drop for Corey Patterson! Fast 18-team league! He's gonna be snatched up soon!! HURRY! Mark Teahen Rick Ankiel Ty Wigginton Garret Anderson Kyle Kendrick Mike Mussina Thanks a bunch!   -- from torontojays

That's quite the sense of urgency you displayed in your question!! You're right in that Patterson should get a look in most leagues, especially of that size, but let's not jump too far ahead of ourselves. As a player, Patterson does a few things well, including steal bases, hit a few homeruns and score runs. His overall attractiveness, however, is offset by continual impatience at the plate and marginal OBPs over the years. He is slated to be the starter in center field on most days out of spring but will still lose time to Ryan Freel sometimes and there's little question the center fielder of the future is Jay Bruce, the top prospect. So keep expectations in check. That said, you probably can replace the likes of Kendrick and Mussina fairly easy as well as Teahan or Wigginton but Ankiel is in a different class as is Anderson and you will certainly want to put them ahead of Patterson on any depth chart.

Mar 23
I'm in a very deep 13 team 4X4 rotissere league (38 round draft). I'm looking for your opinion of the top 10 closer/setup man combos, purely based on number of saves. It doesn't matter much to me how good the main closer is -- I'm just looking for teams that have a CLEAR #2 backup should the #1 closer falter or get injured (ie Broxton is the CLEAR #2 man in LA) Thanks, --Joe   -- from ragnut

That's a good question as there are always a few unforseen shifts in ninth-inning duties every season. As usual, the teams with great setup men are also the teams that can reap a boatload of saves but to make it simple, I'll just post a list of our top 10 closer/setup tandems in regards to potential should a change be needed: 1) Saito/ Broxton- LaN 2) Rivera/ Chamberlain- NyA 3) Wagner/ Heilman- NyN 4) Papelbon/ Okajima- Bos 5) Hoffman/ Bell- SD 6) Ryan/ Accardo- Tor 7) Borowski/ Betancourt- Cle 8) Jenks/ Dotel- ChA 9) Gagne/ Turnbow- Mil 10) Cordero/ Rauch- Was.

Mar 21
In my league Bronson Arroyo is a free agent. My starting pitchers are Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang with Roy Halladay as backup. Should I pick him up and possibly drop one of my several backup outfielders which consist of Delmon Young, Gary Matthews Jr., Michael Cuddyer, and Jeremy Hermida. Also who is a suitable backup for Pujols if he gets hurt. Available are Garko, Laroche, Kouzmanoff, Wigginton, and Votto. Thank You    -- from Ny

You don't necessarily need him but Arroyo is definitely worth a spot in most leagues and it's unlikely you need all those backup outfielders. Strictly because the others have a more appealing history, I'd drop Hermida; he's uncertain to play on Opening Day and hitting in a lineup that won't scare anyone. As to your second question, there obviously isn't a player who will be able to replace Pujols production should he go down. That said, Kouzmanoff was a force after the break last year and should make further strides this season. Garko could also be in for a nice year, although he won't see full-time at-bats as Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner will once again spend some days at first. Votto has nice upside but isn't an option in mixed-league formats yet. Your Welcome.

Mar 21
I am in a AL only 5x5 keeper league with 10 teams. First base is very thin this year plus Morneau, Peña, Gordon and Kotchman are being kept. Other than Konerko who has the most upside?   -- from Thebasher007

I have no idea who else is being retained in your league but it's not uncommon for first basemen to be hot keeper options as it's generally the best run-producing position on the board. That said, I'll assume anyone above Konerko is being kept but some players in his range that may be available include Carlos Guillen, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Swisher, all of whom have nice fantasy potential, although Guillen's production drifts away from standard at first and he's better suited to be a shortstop on your roster. Names that may be available and have substantial upside include Ryan Garko, James Loney and Billy Butler; Garko is the priciest but isn't certain to outproduce the others while Butler is likely the best value. Another cheap option is Conor Jackson while Nick Johnson could be the guy to focus on if you want to take a stab at a risk/reward player. As a rule, if you're looking for a first baseman in keeper leagues you're already behind the eight ball offensively but there are a few options that can keep you well above water at significantly cheaper prices than those on rosters heading into the draft.

Mar 17
I am in a 19 team Dynasty league. I have been offered Kelly Johnson or Brian Roberts along with Dontrelle Willis for BJ Upton. Would you trade Upton for either combo? Upton is eligible @ 2b and I plan to start him there; Willis is switching to AL and last year's struggles concern me. I have a five man rotation that is achnored by Smoltz, B.Myers,and Lilly. What are your thoughts? Thanks in advance.   -- from Power2be in seattle

It's certainly not fair to say anyone is 'untradeable' but if I were to deal Upton in a keeper league (or any for that matter), it would take a heck of a lot more than the names you have there. Johnson is barely draftable in most combo leagues while Roberts value is well-established but not up to Upton's standards. As for Willis, you pretty much summed it up and he will safely be nowhere near any of my rosters this season. You're right in playing Upton at second base as he has considerably more value there than in the outfield but unless something falls in your lap, such as Roberts and a Dan Haren-type starter, he wouldn't be going anywhere. He's already seen dramatic gains the last year and in another year or two, Upton should be a high first-rounder in any format. Be patient and work with what you have and you won't regret it.

Mar 17
Who will get more saves for Toronto - Accardo or Ryan?   -- from GMan

GMan, while Accardo could serve as the team's closer during the season's first couple weeks, there is little question as to who the role belongs to if both are healthy. Prior to last season, Accardo had done little to suspect he could turn in the type of numbers he did, including a 2.14 ERA and .206 opposition batting average, while Ryan not only was among the league's hardest throwers but most efficient closers as well. While Tommy John takes awhile to return from, Ryan is in that range time-wise and any concerns regarding a return of his powerful arsenal should be eased by the history of TJ recipients. Accardo's performance last year and the possibility of a few early-season saves make him a candidate as a late-round flier but Ryan is the one to throw your chips on and, considering he went in the 15th round of my recent Yahoo draft, a heck of a bargain at that.

Mar 17
Need to keep up to 9 players; typical 5 x 5, 12 team Keeper League (National League only). The following five are no brainers: Tulowitzki ($10.00), Hamels ($10.00), Haren $10.00), Hermida ($1.00), Brian Wilson ($10.00). However, I need to choose up to four from the following: T. Hoffman ($27.00), C. Jones ($25.00), Oswalt ($27.00), Arroyo ($10.00), C. Duncan ($15.00), J. Upton ($10.00), D. Roberts ($12.00), J. Votto ($10.00). Who would you keep?   -- from Mikereyno

That's a good start and I agree that most of these are no-brainers, although Wilson could go either way. I really like his upside and he should be a solid source of ratios and strikeouts in the closer role but keeping a ninth-inning man in any Keeper League is questionable. That said, a healthy Chipper is still a solid third baseman in all formats and well worth a $25 pricetag and no one can argue with Oswalt, although keeping him means Arroyo can't be kept. Se la vie. Duncan has some potential but isn't a lock for anything and Roberts is likely inches away from another hamstring injury, never a good keeper scenario. Upton is perhaps the best value on your extended list and Votto should see nearly full-time at-bats in Cincy as a Rookie of the Year candidate, both should be kept at their $10 tag. In keeping Jones, Upton, Votto and Oswalt, you have solid options at two outfield spots, shortstop, third base and first base or utility along with three front-line starters and a nice sleeper closer. That should be give you an ample nucleus while filling out the rest of your squad via the draft. Good luck!

Mar 13
I'm in a 12 team keeper league (rotisserie format) and we're keeping 7 this year. I had outstanding pitching last year and dominated every category. My problem is that my team struggled in every offensive category (except RBI's). In addition to doing my homework, I would like to make a trade prior to our draft in attempt to get a legit 4-5 category player. What do you think adquate compensation would be for Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, and Erik Bedard?   -- from soupcan33

Wow, that's a good tandem to work with in any style of play but there is likely no reason to keep all of them around if you have a weakness anywhere else. At this point in his career, coming off the season he had in 2007, there is probably no way you should consider trading Peavy unless someone offers you a premier offensive talent in the mold of a Ryan Braun or Grady Sizemore, players that not only have proven ability but upside as well. Bedard has more value right now than he likely ever will again and ranks slightly ahead of Sabathia but not enough that they would attract much different talent on the trade market while both pale in comparison to Peavy's value. They could both be top-ten starters this year and as such, you can probably expect to return players like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee or even Mark Teixeira. Other options could be Ichiro Suzuki or Brandon Phillips, although they may be just out of reach in value. It's worth throwing a feeler out there, maybe going slightly above value, to see how other owners in your league perceive them but don't settle for anything less than full-value when dealing before the season begins.

Mar 13
I'm in a keeper league, need to decide between Lance Berkman and Brandon Webb, I need help. Thank you. DB66   -- from DB66

DB66, that's not an easy decision to make considering Webb is coming off a pair of top-two Cy Young voting finishes and pitching for a potential National League contender. That said, when comparing players of similar values with no criteria to fall back on, it's always better to go with the hitter. The biggest factor is the lessened risk of injury as pitchers are far more likely to endure an injury at some point over the season than hitters. Secondly, while starting pitchers are a necessary component, they have an impact just once or twice a week while hitters have 5-7 days to have an impact. Consider, a full-time starter will make two starts approximately a third of the time and 1 start the rest. Thusly, it's safe to assume that a starting pitcher will vastly EXCEED his projectional forecast one-third of the season and perform below the forecast two-thirds of the season, merely based on week-by-week opportunities. A hitter, meanwhile, notices only small variations in opportunities each week, going from 5 to 7 games played most of the time. There are arguments in taking Webb over Berkman, specifically, but when it comes to fantasy success, it's best to rely on consistency and safety, first and foremost, and Berkman is the logical choice.

Mar 13
I am in a couple 12 team head to head leagues this year. In one of them I want to try to win by grabbing stud pitchers. I am sure I can get Santana with my second pick. After that how would you approach this ? I was thinking of grabbing another stud with my 4th pick (38th) overall. What strategy would you use to do this?   -- from The Pope

It's good to have the Pope dropping in, maybe you can help fix our host issues this spring. I'm not sure whether you use a point-based system (like CBS leagues) or roto system (like yahoo leagues) but after the first couple picks of the draft it's impossible to predict who will be available when your pick comes around, and it seems highly unlikely Johan will still be on the board in the second round of any draft. That said, if he's there with your second pick, regardless of format, it's a no-brainer. After that, it's best to keep an open mind when selecting and draft players based on their potential return for the price when it comes to your pick. Dialing in on a certain position before the draft can not only result in letting better options float by but can also result in overpaying for the guys you supposedly want. What if pitchers go quicker than expected? Later than expected? Both situations should change your approach in the draft and locking in a positional draft order makes it less adapting less likely. In essence, it's good to have an approach (ie-narrowing down the categorical range for leagues that only call for the 'winner' to win 5-6 categories each week) but ditch the round-by-round gameplan for one that is thoughtful and liquid.

Mar 09
I need to keep two of these four with Runs and OBP rounding out our 6 categories, Fielder, Crawford, Ortiz, and Rollins. What do you think?   -- from baseball caps

I'd think you would want to start with a formidable run-producer, of which you have two...Fielder and Ortiz. While there's a good chance Ortiz will outhit Fielder, they are going different directions at this point in their careers. Ortiz had a considerable advantage in OBP and runs last year but Fielder is much younger and rising, meaning those gaps should close considerably this season. Considering Fielder's significant edge in homeruns, he's a keeper for you. One school of thought would have you keeping Ortiz as well as he is the premier AL player in those categories but keeping a top-three shortstop with Rollins ability is a nice start to any roster. He should come in near .350 in OBP and rank near the top in runs and steals while pitching in respectable numbers across the board. But since you emphasized OBP and runs, Rollins isn't likely to outrank Ortiz in those categories. Although Crawford has not yet reached ceiling and has legitimate six-category ability, he isn't the most suitable option in this format. He hovers in the mid-.350s in OBP and is not a lock to score 100 runs. He can hit for average and slug some homeruns but aside from his 50-steal potential, Crawford is probably best left to the draft board. A general school of thought is to grab the guy with the positional varience, and in this case it's Rollins, but keeping Ortiz and Fielder would not only give you a nice edge in runs and OBP but add optimum homeruns and runs batted in to your roster. You'll have to find some steals but that can be done and it's not necessarily important that you focus on all six categories.

Mar 06
In the situation where I have a top 3-5 draft choice, wouldn't I be more obliged to take Jimmy Rollins rather than Jose Reyes,considering Reyes' BA woes?   -- from Kraemer_17

Kraemer, Reyes is rated ahead of Rollins in our rankings based largely on his ability on the basepaths and some homerun production as well. And while he may not match Rollins in batting average, to say he has "woes" is overstating it. He hit .280 last season but was hitting .290 as last as September 21 and owns a career average of .284, including a .300 mark in 2006. Rollins, meanwhile, hit .301 last year but hit just .277 a year earlier and owns an identical mark for his career, seven points below Reyes. As far as shortstops are concerned, there are three that could go in the top five but Rollins hasn't quite been able to leapfrog Reyes or Hanley Ramirez but that doesn't mean he might not be your preference. In essence, a decision on Reyes or Rollins shouldn't be made on batting average one way or the other as both are reliable but not great pure hitters. But both will provide a ton of runs and good leadoff ribbies while they split steals and homeruns. If we had to pick which one stands to see a greater dropoff from last year's production, however, we'd pick the younger Reyes almost every day of the week.

Mar 06
I see you're a fan of Billy Butler. Do you honestly think I should draft him ahead of Raul Ibanez in the middle rounds?   -- from doggie

Doggie, we are fans of Billy Butler and really, what's not to like? In four Minor League seasons, he hit a combined .336 with a .415 OBP and .561 SLG. Last year, prior to being called up, he hit .291 with 13 homeruns in 203 at-bats at Triple A-Omaha and continued the momentum into the bigs, where he hit .292 with 8 more homeruns in 329 at-bats. He is a star-in-the-making and could make a run at a .290-25-100 season as the Royals No 3 or 4 hitter. But draft slots are not predicated on what can happen as much as what has happened and in that aspect, Ibanez is the safer, and higher, draft pick. As much as we like Butler, everything we are expecting of him this year Ibanez has been doing for the last few and should do so again in the heart of the Mariners batting order. If you want to get the safest return, grab Ibanez at the higher price but if you want to take a shot at some serious upside, albeit with more risk, at a cheaper rate, then Butler is a great choice in the last couple rounds of mixed-league formats.

Mar 02
I'm in a 10 team league and have a really tough choice. I can keep four of these people - Ryan Howard, Pujols, Utley, Peavy and Verlander. I love the thought of keeping two pitchers, especially when one just won a Cy Young and I think the other (Verlander) should break out in a huge way in 2008. However, to keep Verlander I'd have to most likely drop Utley or Howard. What do I do?   -- from Have 5 great keepers, but can only keep four

There are so many criteria when determining keepers and there isn't a whole lot to work with here. That said, while the prospect of having both Peavy and Verlander heading your staff is tantalizing there are more reasons to keep hitters than pitchers. First and foremost, hitters play every day, meaning they will give you 5-7 games a week versus 1-2. If this is a head-to-head league, that results in you getting less than average production from Peavy or Verlander (relative to their own production) 2 out of every 3 weeks and above average production just once in three weeks. In a nutshell, pitchers do not retain their value on a week-to-week basis nearly as much as hitters and therefore your money is better spent on hitters. Secondly, while Peavy and Verlander are two of the best starting candidates this year, your hitters are no slouches either. All three should be All-Stars (assuming Pujols stays on the field) while Utley has considerable positional varience. In a vacuum (with no known criteria), Verlander is the one to lose but if you are set on keeping two arms, Howard would likely be the best option to throw back in the draft pool.

Mar 02
Come the end of September, which player do you think many of us fantasy managers will be scratching our heads about and mumbling 'I really should have taken him in April'?   -- from Kev

That's a great question to get the ball rolling with Kev. Every year there are a number of players that make us wonder what we were thinking during the draft; last season's candidates could include David Wright, Russell Martin, Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia along with some lesser impact options like Brad Hawpe and Shane Victorino. A good place to start when considering who could have us shaking our heads come October are veterans who have lost a little luster due to recent dropoffs but if healthy can easily exceed expectations. While Albert Pujols is our No 1 NL Risk due to his lingering elbow problem if he can play in 150 games he'll likely be a bargain in the latter part of the first. Slightly cheaper but with massive upside are Travis Hafner and Mark Teixeira along with Rickie Weeks. Looking at players who could be in for bustout seasons, BJ Upton, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano and Hunter Pence all have a great shot at outpacing their draft slots while Justin Verlander may very well be the favorite for the AL Cy Young now that Johan has moved on. The last name we'll throw out there takes us back to a similar situation a couple years ago, when Francisco Liriano was flirting with a rotation spot but likely to serve as a reliever out of the gate. It's already been announced that Joba Chamberlain will work in relief when the season opens but it's highly probable he moves to the rotation, either out of necessity or mere logic, at some point before too long. Like Liriano, talent like Chamberlain's doesn't come around often and our initial projections (46 appearances, 20 starts, 138 innings) still, in our minds, makes him a mixed-league must based on his upside and impact even in a non-closing relief role. All of these players could be in for big years.

Mar 02
Where do you draft Pujols with the injury?   -- from Cman

Cman, this is a hot topic today and one that will remain so throughout the season if offseason reports are accurate. A little more than a year ago Pujols was the unchallenged top choice in the fantasy world but he was already losing ground to Arod last year and the field has been muddled a little bit with the newcomers at the position. If healthy, there is no question as to Pujols' potential (he is probably the top threat to win a Triple Crown on a year-to-year basis) but that is a big IF. His elbow injury is no secret and Pujols has said he will try to play through it but recently added that if he has to go through another painful season like 2007 the slugger isn't afraid to shut it down and undergo the season-ending surgery he contemplated after last year. While getting frontline production is important with a first-round pick, making sure your top investment stays on the field is probably more important and for this reason it's not out of the question that Pujols is no longer in a class by himself. Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and David Ortiz are all candidates to outproduce Pujols at first base and the wise move may be to let Pujols slip through the first two rounds while grabbing a safer option.

 
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